The motion of no-confidence in Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, tomorrow in the Dáil has been widely discussed and examined. Certain parties have already committed to a position and one assumes that 4 of the Wexford TD’s will vote along party lines. The one unknown is the decision which will be made by Independent TD Verona Murphy. In discussing the issue on RTE last week Deputy Murphy said she will vote in “Wexford’s best interest”.

As a result of leaking a confidential document to Dr Maitiu O’Tuathail, Varadkar was subject to scrutiny and questioning in Dail Eireann last week. Since then, Sinn Fein have brought forward a motion of no-confidence in Leo Varadkar.

It is highly likely, unless things change significantly between now and tomorrow afternoon, that Varadkar will comfortably survive this vote of no-confidence, but let’s look at the likely voting decisions by our 5 Co.Wexford TD’s. 

It is certain that under party orders, Fianna Fail’s James Browne and Fine Gael’s Paul Kehoe will support Varadkar and vote against the motion of no-confidence.

While it is also certain that Sinn Fein’s Johnny Mythen will vote for his party’s motion of no-confidence.

The Labour Party are battling with Sinn Fein for vote share, and won’t want to lose more ground. Therefore, Brendan Howlin is likely to vote for the Sinn Fein motion.

Independent, Verona Murphy has the scope to make up her own mind, and has plenty of reasons to vote in either way.

On the one hand, Murphy has no shortage of reasons to vote against Leo Varadkar. She was unceremoniously dumped by Fine Gael, when Varadkar was instrumental in removing her after the Wexford by-election.

From this perspective it would be an ideal opportunity for Murphy to get revenge, but the purpose of voting in our national parliament is not to settle scores, it is to make responsible and even handed decisions. Voting against Varadkar may be seen as petty score-settling. On the other hand, if Deputy Murphy’s votes for Leo, she will be accused by opponents of being a closet blue-shirt.

On RTE last week, in relation to the issue, Murphy said “I was dropped by Leo and Fine Gael, however, I won’t be making my decision based on that. I will be considering whether what he did was damaging in the public interest, I don’t have any score to settle.” Deputy Murphy finished her remarks by saying “the high moral ground is seldom grazed”. Perhaps this gives us an indication of which way Deputy Murphy will vote.

Independent TD’s, in general, thread carefully on issues such as this, as they usually rely on government goodwill to bring about investment to their constituencies.

Fianna Fail are caught between a rock and a hard place too. Sticking up for Fine Gael and defending Varadkar will not sit well with many in Fianna Fail, but they are languishing so low in the opinion polls now, they are more fearful of a general election than Fine Gael. The same could be said for the Green Party.

It also must be noted with the current issues with Covid-19 and Brexit in January, that an unstable government at this time would leave Ireland at a distinct disadvantage in dealing with both of those issues. TD’s must also take into account these issues when making their decisions.

The Sinn Fein motion does have an element of political opportunism associated with it. Deputy Pearse Doherty was very impressive in his interrogation of the Tanaiste, and used his time wisely to ensure that he got answers to specific questions, but it must be noted at this stage, whilst Varadkar’s behaviour was not permitted and certainly not best practice, there has been no demonstration that it has interfered with the public interest. In fact, further revelations earlier today by the Village magazine make the issue look more of a personal crusade against Varadkar.

Perhaps if more information comes into the public domain, a different light will be shed on the issue, but it certainly looks to be the case that Varadkar will survive on this occasion.